U.S. Underemployment in Mid-December Similar to a Year Ago
Unemployment is at 8.7%, with 9.7% working part time but seeking full-time jobs
PRINCETON, NJ -- Underemployment, a measure that combines the percentage of workers who are unemployed with the percentage working part time but wanting full-time work, is 18.4% in mid-December, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment. This is up slightly from 18.1% at the end of November and similar to the 18.5% of a year ago.
Unemployment, one of the two components of underemployment, is at 8.7% in mid-December -- up from 8.5% at the end of last month, but down from 9.3% a year ago. Gallup's unemployment measure suggests the government is likely to report essentially no change for December 2011 in its seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, though this is even more difficult than usual to predict at this time of year.
The second component of underemployment is the percentage of U.S. employees who are working part time but want full-time work. It is now at 9.7% -- essentially the same as the 9.6% at the end of November. However, the current reading is significantly higher than the 9.2% of mid-December 2010.
December Job Creation Index Down in Most Recent Week
Gallup's Job Creation Index for the week ending Dec. 11 is +12, based on 30% of workers nationwide saying their employers are hiring and 18% saying their employers are letting workers go. Just a week earlier, Gallup's Job Creation Index tied its weekly high for the year (+16). Still, Gallup's latest weekly results contrast sharply with the government's recent report that jobless claims fell to a three-year low during the week ending Dec. 10.
Gallup's Job Creation Index and the government's jobless claims report tend to have an inverse relationship and generally tend to align. Although this alignment does not necessarily happen on a weekly basis, it tends to be more erratic around the holidays as seasonal adjustments and processing issues make weekly jobless claims more volatile.
Growing Unemployment Optimism May Be Premature
The sharp drop in the government-reported unemployment rate for November and the sharp drop in jobless claims during the most recent reporting week have combined to create the perception that the job market may be improving. Economists are wondering whether this means the economy is stronger than previously estimated. Political observers are wondering how fast and how far the unemployment rate needs to fall to significantly improve the president's re-election prospects.
In contrast, Gallup's data suggest little improvement in the jobs situation. December unemployment is up slightly on an unadjusted basis. In fact, the government is likely to report essentially no change in the unemployment rate when it issues its report on December unemployment in the first week of 2012. Of course, this assumes that the labor force doesn't continue to shrink at so rapid a pace that it drives down the unemployment rate, as it did last month.
Gallup's most recent weekly job creation numbers also suggest little improvement in the jobs situation. As a result, it may be wise to exercise caution in interpreting the drop in the government's most recent jobless claims numbers.
Further, one reason unemployment is often seen as a lagging indicator has to do with the way people enter and leave the workforce. Even if the recent seeming improvement in the job market is more real than Gallup's data imply, signs of a better job market are likely to bring new job seekers into the workforce. The result could be a reversal of last month's drop in the unemployment rate as the workforce increases in size.
In sum, while pleasant thoughts about the job market may be nice for the holidays, caution is clearly warranted -- at least as far as too much job market optimism is concerned -- until the data unfold over the next couple of months.
Gallup.com reports results from these indexes in daily, weekly, and monthly averages and in Gallup.com stories. Complete trend data are always available to view and export in the following charts:
Daily: Employment, Economic Confidence and Job Creation, Consumer Spending
Weekly: Employment, Economic Confidence, Job Creation, Consumer Spending
Read more about Gallup's economic measures.
View our economic release schedule.
Gallup's Job Creation Index for the week ending Dec. 11 is +12, based on 30% of workers nationwide saying their employers are hiring and 18% saying their employers are letting workers go. Just a week earlier, Gallup's Job Creation Index tied its weekly high for the year (+16). Still, Gallup's latest weekly results contrast sharply with the government's recent report that jobless claims fell to a three-year low during the week ending Dec. 10.
Gallup's Job Creation Index and the government's jobless claims report tend to have an inverse relationship and generally tend to align. Although this alignment does not necessarily happen on a weekly basis, it tends to be more erratic around the holidays as seasonal adjustments and processing issues make weekly jobless claims more volatile.
The sharp drop in the government-reported unemployment rate for November and the sharp drop in jobless claims during the most recent reporting week have combined to create the perception that the job market may be improving. Economists are wondering whether this means the economy is stronger than previously estimated. Political observers are wondering how fast and how far the unemployment rate needs to fall to significantly improve the president's re-election prospects.
In contrast, Gallup's data suggest little improvement in the jobs situation. December unemployment is up slightly on an unadjusted basis. In fact, the government is likely to report essentially no change in the unemployment rate when it issues its report on December unemployment in the first week of 2012. Of course, this assumes that the labor force doesn't continue to shrink at so rapid a pace that it drives down the unemployment rate, as it did last month.
Gallup's most recent weekly job creation numbers also suggest little improvement in the jobs situation. As a result, it may be wise to exercise caution in interpreting the drop in the government's most recent jobless claims numbers.
Further, one reason unemployment is often seen as a lagging indicator has to do with the way people enter and leave the workforce. Even if the recent seeming improvement in the job market is more real than Gallup's data imply, signs of a better job market are likely to bring new job seekers into the workforce. The result could be a reversal of last month's drop in the unemployment rate as the workforce increases in size.
In sum, while pleasant thoughts about the job market may be nice for the holidays, caution is clearly warranted -- at least as far as too much job market optimism is concerned -- until the data unfold over the next couple of months.
Daily: Employment, Economic Confidence and Job Creation, Consumer Spending
Weekly: Employment, Economic Confidence, Job Creation, Consumer Spending
Read more about Gallup's economic measures.
View our economic release schedule.
Survey Methods Gallup classifies American workers as underemployed if they are either unemployed or working part time but wanting full-time work. The findings reflect more than 18,000 phone interviews with U.S. adults aged 18 and older in the workforce, collected over a 30-day period. Gallup's results are not seasonally adjusted and are ahead of government reports by approximately two weeks.
Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking from Nov. 16 to Dec. 14, 2011, with a random sample of 18,258 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling.
For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each sample includes a minimum quota of 400 cell phone respondents and 600 landline respondents per 1,000 national adults, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents by region. Landline telephone numbers are chosen at random among listed telephone numbers. Cell phone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday.
Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, and phone status (cell phone only/landline only/both, cell phone mostly, and having an unlisted landline number). Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2010 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design.
Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking from Nov. 16 to Dec. 14, 2011, with a random sample of 18,258 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling.
For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each sample includes a minimum quota of 400 cell phone respondents and 600 landline respondents per 1,000 national adults, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents by region. Landline telephone numbers are chosen at random among listed telephone numbers. Cell phone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday.
Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, and phone status (cell phone only/landline only/both, cell phone mostly, and having an unlisted landline number). Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2010 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design.
Obama, Democrats Have Edge on Payroll Tax, UnemploymentThe president and Democrats get higher marks on their job performance this year than GOP
ReplyDeleteby Frank NewportPRINCETON, NJ -- Americans have slightly more confidence in President Barack Obama and the Democrats in Congress (41%) than in the Republicans in Congress (34%) when it comes to the looming debate on what the government should do about a more permanent extension of payroll tax cuts and unemployment benefits.
These findings, collected on Dec. 27 in Gallup Daily tracking, also show that about a quarter of Americans either don't have an opinion on the issue (10%) or say they have confidence in neither (15%) or both (1%) of the two partisan groups.
Last week, Republican House leadership reluctantly agreed to the two-month extension of the payroll tax cuts and extended unemployment benefits supported by President Obama and the vast majority of the Senate. The temporary extension forestalled an immediate tax increase for millions of Americans and a loss of unemployment compensation for millions more on Jan. 1. Undoubtedly, the issue will again take center stage as politicians in Washington return from their holiday vacations and face the looming Feb. 29 deadline.
Partisan differences in this confidence measure follow predictable lines. More than 8 in 10 Democrats have more confidence in Obama and Democratic leaders, while more than 8 in 10 Republicans have more confidence in Republicans in Congress. Independents give a slight 35% to 27% edge to Obama and the Democrats.
Obama Earns Better Marks on Job Done This Year Than Republicans
A separate Dec. 15-18 USA Today/Gallup poll finds Americans more charitable in their ratings of Obama and congressional Democrats than congressional Republicans. That poll asked Americans to more generally rate the job performance of elected officials in Washington this year. Thirty-two percent of Americans rated Obama's job performance as excellent or good, compared with the 18% who gave the same rating to Democrats in Congress and the 12% who gave such high marks to Republicans in Congress.
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In U.S., Fear of Big Government at Near-Record LevelDecember 12, 2011
U.S. November Underemployment Up From a Year AgoDecember 1, 2011
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Jobs, Economy Remain Dominant Concerns for AmericansNovember 14, 2011
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December 21, 2011
ReplyDeleteMany Americans Dissatisfied With All Presidential CandidatesNearly half say there is no candidate who would make a good president
by Frank NewportPRINCETON, NJ -- Americans are divided when asked if there is any candidate running who they think would make a good president, with 48% saying yes and 46% saying no. This is a slightly more positive outlook than that of 1992, when an incumbent president was also seeking re-election, but more pessimistic than in the election years of 2008 and 2000.
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Gallup has asked this question in the presidential election years of 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2008, but at different points in the election cycle.
In 1992, the question was first asked in January, a few weeks further into the election cycle than is the case for the current poll. At that point, 40% of Americans said there was a candidate running who they thought would make a good president, slightly below the current 48%. The 1992 election is similar in broad respects to the current election, in that it also featured an incumbent president with relatively low approval ratings seeking re-election, with the opposition party having not yet coalesced around a strong front-running challenger.
One manifestation of this displeasure with the presidential field in 1992 was the emergence of third-party candidate Ross Perot, who, despite dropping out and then re-entering the race, ended up with 19% of the popular vote. No such prominent third-party candidate has yet announced his or her candidacy in the current election cycle, but on the basis of this question, it appears the public could be receptive to such an eventuality.
The 2000 and 2008 presidential elections both were open-seat elections, and in January of both years, the percentage of Americans who said there was a candidate running who would be a good president was substantially higher than it is today.
On the Issues: On Par With 1992 and 2000, Worse Than in 2008
Americans are more positive when asked whether the presidential candidates are talking about issues they really care about. Fifty-seven percent of Americans say "yes," very close to the responses in January 1992 and in January 2000, but well below January 2008.
Perhaps not surprisingly, there are big differences in responses to this question by party, no doubt reflecting the high-profile Republican campaign that has been conducted all year, while there has been no serious opposition to the re-nomination of President Obama. Seventy-five percent of Republicans say the candidates are talking about issues they really care about, compared with 55% of independents and 43% of Democrats.
On the Candidates' Ideas: Better Than in 1992, Worse Than in 2008
About 4 in 10 Americans say the presidential candidates have come up with good ideas for solving the country's problems. This is actually higher than the percentage who answered this question affirmatively in January 1992, but well below "yes" responses in January 2008.
On the Election Process: More Negative Than in 2000 and 2008
Thirty-nine percent of Americans now say the presidential campaign makes them feel as though the election process is working as it should, a question Gallup asked in two election cycles prior to this one. This year's result is well below the 57% and 67% who said this in January 2000 and January 2008, respectively. Both of those elections were open seat, with no incumbent running in either party.
Bottom Line
ReplyDeleteAmericans give mixed signals in response to these poll questions asking about the state of the presidential election this year. They are not strongly pleased with the choice of presidential candidates so far in this campaign, suggesting, as was the case in 1992, that a third-party challenger -- or a new candidate emerging to challenge for the GOP nomination -- could find some success.
Americans are also displeased with the way in which the campaign process is working, which could be part of the more general negative attitude Gallup is finding toward the way the nation's government is working.
On the other hand, Americans' views of the candidates' ideas for solving problems are actually more positive now than they were in 1992, although less positive than in January 2008.
All in all, Americans' views of the election process so far share some similarities to what they were in early 1992, when an incumbent president was also running for re-election in the context of a troubled economy. It is too early to tell how the 2012 election will play out over the next 11 months, but the 1992 election ended up with a relatively strong third-party challenger and, ultimately, the defeat of the incumbent president.
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Survey Methods
Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Dec. 15-18, 2011, with a random sample of 1,019 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.
For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each sample includes a minimum quota of 400 cell phone respondents and 600 landline respondents per 1,000 national adults, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents by region. Landline telephone numbers are chosen at random among listed telephone numbers. Cell phone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday.
Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, and phone status (cell phone only/landline only/both, cell phone mostly, and having an unlisted landline number). Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2010 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design.